A Foreign Intelligence Agency May Very Well Be Behind the Assassination of Mohammad Brahmi

Just when everyone thought that Tunisia is nearing safe harbour, a staggering blow was dealt to the process of democratic transition as Arab Nationalism figure Mohammed Brahmi was assassinated on the 25th of July. Both the assassins and their motives remain unknown with many of the parties in opposition pointing fingers at Nahdha, the ruling party.

Yet it seems that the assassination is not at all in the benefit of the ruling party. As a figure of the opposition,  Brahmi did not have the political weight of Hamma Hammami (Communist figure) or Kaied Essebssi (former PM and opposition figure). Had it been Nahdha's doing, therefore, it would have been more rational to assassinate one of these "threatening figures" instead of Brahmi. The assassination's timing also comes at a very unsuitable time for Nahdha. The Troika government has finaly managed to restore a fair level of security to the country, revive tourism, and even win the relative support of some opposition figures such as Ahmed Najib Chabbi. It seems, then, quite improbable that Nahdha is behind the murder. Nevertheless, the government has to answer for it's sloppiness in providing a minimal ammount of personal security for MPs.

Ansar Chariaa (a salafist group operating in Tunisia) are more likely to be the ones behind the assassination. Just a couple of weeks before the murder, a weapons depot belonging to Salafists was raided by police units in the vicinity of Brahmi's house. Furthermore, Tunisian Home Ministry officially accused the same organization of being behind the assassination of Chokri Belaid. What is not clear however, is why would Ansar Chariaa assassinate a practicing muslim while there are other political figures who are more likely to be targets of an "inquisition" such as Hamma Hammami who has been often labelled as "atheist" ?

A return to the details of the assassination hints,however, at a foreign involvement as the operation was carried out in a most professional manner. According to the deceased's neighbours, the same individuals who murdered Brahmi have staked out his house for days while posing as a police patrol. Autopsy report indicates that an overall of 14 bullets have penetrated the victim's body which is quite difficult to achieve in a drive-by shooting unless the shooter is a professional. Furthermore, the gun used in the operation is, according to crime scene investigations, the famous Israeli UZI 9m. This gun is rare to find in the region since official forces rely on Austrian and American arms while terrorist groups rely heavily on the Russian AK-47. 

Under the light of the few information available so far, it is more probable that Jihadists, a foreing intelligence agency, or even both in collaboration are behind this assassination that may have disastrous consequences on the country's political and social climate.

U.S. Embassy Dissatisfied with "Lenient Sentences" Handed to Participants in the September Attack

Last Tuesday, 20 Tunisians linked to fundamentalist Salafist group have been convicted of attacking the U.S. Embassy . The attackers were handed a two year suspended sentence each by a Tunisian local court.

This aggression was triggered chiefly by a U.S. made movie offending muslim beliefs and consequently unleashed an uproar of contempt and hatred towards the U.S. among international Muslim communities.

Demonstrators hoisting the black Khilafah flagon on the roof of

 the Embassy's Entrance

Infuriated crowds, numbering more than 1.500 people, swarmed the U.S. compound in Tunis raided the Embassy , wrecked cars, and ultimately burned the U.S. flag. Unexpectedly, the police response to these acts of vandalism  was tardy and their attempts to remedy the situation culminated only into few arrests. The initial American statement in response to the incident stressed the urgent need to bring those responsible for the attacks to justice.


According to official reports, around 73 people were arrested during the clashes with police. However, most of them were freed allegedly for lack of incriminating evidence and only 20 were charged and prosecuted.

Tunisian National Guard patrol 

In a statement issued by the Embassy, " The verdicts do not correspond appropriately to the extent and severity of the damage and violence that took place". Arguably, the embassy expressed its dismay and announced that it was"deeply troubled by reports of suspended sentences" and called for further investigation on the incident .


It should be noted therefore that in such acts of aggression on a foreign Embassy, particularly the U.S. one, the state is expected to stand firm and take all necessary preemptive measures to counter any potential menaces. In this respect, the failure of the Tunisian government was two folds ; indeed not only were its attempts to secure the U.S. Embassy unfruitful but its efforts to redress the already calamitous situation through a court decision led only to light sentences. A ruling that truly deluded the Embassy's hopes for a satisfying moral indemnification for the damage caused .


Many political experts have deemed the government approach to the Embassy incident as too lenient and may result if it reoccurs in an embarrassing diplomatic crisis with a strategic ally. On this basis government must assert that there will be zero tolerance to violence. Furthermore, as it may be inferred by the U.S. Embassy latest statements, the state has the obligation not to default on its responsibilities in providing security to Foreign establishments. An implicit warning no doubt that may result into a rift in the U.S./Tunisian relations in case such a mess happens again .

Tunisian Army: Is it Up to the Task Anymore ?

Tunisia is the country that initiated the process refered to as "Arab Spring". According to most sources,  during the "revolution" Tunisian army sided with the Tunisian protestors resulting in the takedown of one of the most oppressive presidents of all time.

This army now has to face a multitude of new challenges. Not only is it required to support security forces until State of Emergency is lifted, but it also has to protect Tunisian borders from terrorist groups and illegal traficking. In pursuing these goals, the army is hindered by two weaknesses, lack of manpower and obsoleteness of equipment.

Tunisian Land Army, the main branch of the military and the one that carries most of the burden of the post-revolutionary situation comprises no more than 40.000 men at best. Such a number is hardly enough to maintain domestic security and prevent daily acts of vendalism and riots, let alone protect national borders from rather well equiped militia.

Lack of manpower can be easily compensated for with modern military equipment. This is not the case, however, with the Tunisian army. The air force still relies on American F-5 jets that are no longer reliable and require almost daily maintenance. Things are no better with helicopters as more and more men die on a nearly regular basis because of the accidents the army's obsolete choppers have. When searching for terrorists in hard-to-navigate areas such as the Chaanbi mountains, such equipment may even become a burden rather than a support.

                                           A Tunisian F-5, even to the eye of someone who

                                             lacks knowledge of military airpower, it seems 

                                                             obsolete and cartoonish

Tunisian artillery and armoured divisions are in no better state. A quick look at WIKI's Tunisan Land Army article will show how bad the situation is with these branches . Many of the army's artillery cannons, armoured vehicles, and anti-armour equipment carry the note "possibly no longer in service".

The situation with the infantry adds insult to injury. Apart from Tunsian special forces and counter-terrorism units, Tunisian infantrymen use Steyr Aug, another obsolete piece of equipment that lacks precision and range and therefore causes more and more incidents of "friendly" fire.

With the described state of the Tunisian Army, it appears that unless an urgent plan to modernise the army's arsenal is carried out with as much expediency as possible, this military force will soon find itself unable to protect Tunisian borders. For it has to be kept in consideration that Al-Quaieda militias continuously develop their equipment and tactics, something unheard of when it comes to theTunisian military.

Syrian Conflict Turns Cold War-Style After Russia's Staggering S-300 Supply Declaration

Only a few hours ago, EU's Foreign Affairs Council put an end to the arms embargo on Syria. The decision was not only highly controversial, but was also taken in a very non unanimous fashion as 25 states voted against this decision.

            

British Foreign Minister William Hague (left)              

Furthermore, France and Britain rejected an agreement to halt arms supply until the end of Geneva II. The two states, therefore, may well prepare an armament package for the Syrian opposition in an effort, according to Hague, to force Assad into serious peace negotiations.

EU's decision, was, not surprisingly, met with a staggering declaration. Moscow declared few hours after EU's meeting that it will soon provide Bashar with the S-300 air defense system, a system well reputed for its effectiveness.

                                                                Russian S-300 Truck

Bashar receiving S-300 will have important consequences. Not only will it prevent Israel from launching any more air attacks on Syrian military facilities, but it will also put an end to any hope for a NATO enforced no-fly zone on Syria.

Such a step on Russia's part seems to herald a cold war-style proxy war. It goes without question that soon upon the Syrian regime's reception of the S-300, the Anglo-French axis would not hesitate to supply the opposition with heavy arms.

In addition to that, this step can compromise Russo-American talks forcing Obama to fully join the Cameron-Hollande alliance. With the current situation in North Korea, if such a scenario takes place, and so far it seems rather inevitable, a full scale 21st century cold war may erupt. Such an event would change the face of the region permanently.

Anglo-French Campaign to Lift EU Arms Embargo on Syria: An Ad Hoc Alliance or a U Turn in British Foreign Policy ?

As the Anglo-French anti-embargo alliance manages to bring down EU's arms embargo on Syria, one cannot help but muse on this rather unusual axis and its future prospects.

David Cameron visited D.C a few days ago in an attempts to gain American support for the anti-embargo campaign. Most reports, however, indicate that Obama was not that enthusiastic about the idea. Cameron, therefore, had to rely solely on Hollande.

This Anglo-French alliance eventually managed to push EU Foreign Affairs Council to lift the embargo. With Germany confused over whether to support UK or keep on seeking compromise, it seems that the real alliance here is the Anglo-French one.

On the other hand, Obama's position looks vague. American talks with Russia seem to be moving forward but with no concrete results so far apart from the Geneva II conference. Nevertheless, D.C seems to be trying to avoid any sort of  proxy warfare where Russia arms Asad forces while EU and possibly USA arming opposition, a scenario that may lead to a 21st century cold war.

With this situation at hand, it seems as if UK has despaired in its traditional American ally and found itself a new alonely in a rather rare and unusual alliance. Cameron and Hollande seem to be more than eager to arm Syrian opposition. According to William Hague, british foreign minister, arming the opposition will force Asad into more serious peace negotiations. It is worth noting here that, unlike US, UK's range of action is not limited by talks with Russia. As Cameron shows disinterest, to say the least, in a peaceful process that includes Iran, Russia's main condition for Geneva II.

Briefly then, the situation seems as follows: while US takes a soft approach that relies mainly on talks with Russia, it may be compromising its alliance with UK, at least on the Syrian matter. Meanwhile, Cameron has found himself a new ally, France, in an ad hoc alliance that may develop into a more sustainable one. The Syrian crisis may very well cause significant changes in the whole structure of western foreign policy and alliances.